(my interview for TVP World on 26 April, 2026)
- White House Correspondents Dinner attack:
- Europeans’ gut reaction is: This is America’s toxic gun culture and political polarisation.
- But initially, there was even a conciliatory tone between Republicans and Democrats: both sides were represented at the dinner, and Trump called this an attack on the Constitution (about which he otherwise cares less).
- But this kind of unity is not going to last. Trump’s ship is sinking, politically, and divisiveness will quickly return.
- Trump’s and Tusk’s remarks on NATO allies:
- Trump calling Europeans bad allies is like Voldemort claiming Harry Potter violated the Geneva Convention at the Battle of Hogwarts.
- Critics of PM Tusk’s questioning US loyalty in NATO should finally admit that it’s Trump who has been systematically undermining Article 5 for over a year now.
- Trump’s claim that NATO allies are unhelpful over Iran systematically overlooks the fact that NATO is a defensive alliance, not one for a war of choice without even consulting allies.
- The one time allies were there to help the US was after it had been attacked on 9/11. And Europeans casualties there were overproportional in relation to their size.
- US-Polish relations:
- There still is a special relationship beyond NATO. Poland’s record on defence spending and readiness to fight is exemplary. Trump has nothing to complain about here.
- Recent US behaviour reminds a lot of Poles of Soviet bullying. And President Nawrocki’s attempt to create a special axis to Washington, bypassing the government, is not helpful.
- Is a Russian attack on NATO imminent?
- PM Tusk said something that many European political leaders and military commanders have said, just maybe a little less dramatically than he.
- An attack may indeed be closer than many in Europe think. Russia still has some reserve forces and air assets, and it already is waging a hybrid war against Western democracies ranging from cyber attacks to sabotage etc.
- Is NATO ready?
- Probably not tomorrow. Also depends on the kind of attack. Now, the US are indispensable for a defence.
- In the long run, Europeans have to be able to deter Russia on their own; in the short run, they have to take what they can get from the US. This may make them actually more dependent, which is why Europeans need to navigate between short and long term.
- EU summit in Cyprus:
- The 90 bn loan for Ukraine passed! That’s a welcome boost for Ukraine.
- On financing the EU’s huge expenditures for defence, energy security and soon maybe even to counter a new global recession, there is the habitual difference between the frugal North and the profligate South. But a compromise will be found!