Zelensky-Trump and Putin-Trump calls:
- Zelensky can build on recent military successes against Russia (drones, deep strikes). Trump may not like Zelensky, but he respects winners.
- Zelensky can show that he is still interested in peace negotiations, as opposed to Putin who hasn’t budged since 2022
NATO summit in Ankara:
- damage limitation is the Europeans’ goal but Trump has been turning up the hate against NATO recently.
- On defence spending, Greenland, Iran, in 2025/6 Europeans have done the reasonable things and resisted the crazy ideas.
- The problem is that every Trump tweet bashing the allies gives Putin new hope of splitting the West and thereby eventually winning against Ukraine.
Ukrainian drone strikes:
- They are extremely effective in turning up the heat on Putin. He is now in his worst situation since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, thanks to Ukrainian military successes, but also Western sanctions and the subsequent souring of the mood of many Russians.
- Whether that will force him to compromise on peace with Ukraine, remains to be seen. But it’s still Ukraine’s best bet.
Military situation in Donbas:
- Claims and counter-claims about who controls Kostyantynivka: What we know for sure is that the city centre will still be embattled for some time while Ukraine inflicts terrible losses on Russia (like in Pokrovsk).
- Kostyantynivka is no tipping point, even for the Donbas itself. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are firmly in Ukrainian hands, and strongly fortified.
US intel warnings about Russian attack against Poland:
- Putin may indeed be weighing options of a hybrid attack on a NATO member. It sounds counter-intuitive because Russia has problems already in Ukraine but it would most certainly not be a full-scale ground attack but something hybrid (missiles, drones, sabotage, maybe limited incursion under false flag).
- The goal would not be to conquer territory, but to distract attention (and arms deliveries) from Ukraine and, above all, split the Europeans: there would be countries in favour of an armed response and others who would want to de-escalate.
- Donald Tusk is right to amplify those US government warnings: Better safe than sorry!
The Polish-Ukrainian spat over history:
- This is by now a full-blown crisis between important allies, and the only profiteer is Putin!
- Mistakes were made on both sides, but the most important lesson is: Poles and Ukrainians will hardly agree on a common vision of a painful history. They should jointly prioritise to cooperate on topics that are of strategic importance: that Ukraine wins the war and that it soon joins the EU.
- In that sense, history should be put in its place.