Kategorie: Nato and transatlantic relations

  • Jürgen Habermas and the „Zeitenwende“

    Jürgen Habermas and the „Zeitenwende“

    Jürgen Habermas, like my mother, turns 96 this year. This is, in itself, a remarkable achievement, especially as both, in their own ways, have remained intellectually agile. Admittedly this is where the parallels end.

    The philosopher and political-social theorist Jürgen Habermas is an institution in Germany and beyond. His works spanning by now several decades have regularly impacted public discourse and political thinking.

    • Already in the early 60ies he outlined that democracy is not just about free and fair elections. Equally crucial for democracy, he outlined, is a vibrant public sphere, providing a space for critical debate and public opinion formation.
    • In the 80ies Habermas provoked one of the most important debates in postwar Germany, when he accused four historians of trying to “normalize” the German past and criticized any attempts to relativize the Holocaust.  Instead, he argued in favor of “constitutional patriotism” with Germans learning to take a critical stance vis-à-vis their history while embracing universal principles enshrined in a liberal democratic constitution.
    • His passion for European integration and a stronger Europe has become another leitmotiv in his thinking and writing. He supported the adoption of a European constitution (which failed) and regularly advocated for    more democratic participation and the active engagement of citizens in shaping Europe’s future.

    It is this enduring engagement for Europe which has now led him to publish a comprehensive essay “For Europe” in Süddeutsche Zeitung.

    Many aspects of his analysis and critique are to the point and heads-on, but he seems far from having internalised the “Zeitenwende” in his own framework.

    With Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the systemic change in the US that has set in motion, the “West under the leadership of the United States has disintegrated, even if, formally speaking, the fate of NATO remains an open question for the time being.”

    Against this background he is again advocating for a strong and united Europe: “From a European perspective, this epochal break has far-reaching consequences – both for the further course and possible end of the war in Ukraine, and for the need, willingness, and ability of the European Union to find a redemptive response to the new situation. Otherwise, Europe will also be drawn into the maelstrom of the declining superpower.”

    Astonishingly for someone with a lifelong pacifist posture, he justifies European rearmament: “The member states of the European Union must strengthen and pool their military forces, because otherwise they will no longer count politically in a geopolitically turbulent and disintegrating world. Only as a Union capable of independent political action can the European countries effectively bring their common global economic weight to bear in support of their normative convictions and interests.”

    And he criticizes, rightly, consecutive German governments since Angela Merkel for “ignorance and inactivity” in the realm of European integration, “and this in the face of the long-standing efforts of our neighbour France!”

    But when it comes to other aspects, Russia, Ukraine, and Europe’s way forward, his analysis seems biased or limited.

    Whereas Habermas outlines the authoritarian transformation of the US with some depth, Russia is largely defined as an “irrational imperial power long in decline.”  While Russia may be in decline from an economic and human resources perspective, its imperialism under Putin has, sadly, not been in decline, but rather on the rise. As such, there is no reference that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine since 2014, as earlier wars against Georgia, are an integral part of a coherent, and not an irrational, imperialistic ideology, combined with a strengthening of dictatorship internally.

    When it comes to Russia, he diagnoses a “climate of heated anti-Russian sentiment” which is “fuelling old prejudices” and refers to “a possible or talked-up current Russian threat to NATO countries” and “highly speculative assumptions about a current threat to the EU from Russia.” This is largely ignoring facts and reality.  Not any hot-headed individual has identified Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.”  This was agreed by all then 30 NATO Allies in adopting the still valid Strategic Concept 2022.  Since then, it has been reconfirmed and sharpened by Allies on many occasions.  And the threats of Russia’s shadow war against European countries are not “speculative” but very real. They range from interference in election processes, cyber-attacks, via sabotage against critical infrastructure, coercion in particular against Ukraine supporters, up to targeted murder.  The EU is pursuing the European Defence Readiness 2030 or the EU Preparedness Strategy not out of “speculative”, but in light of very tangible threats.

    This bias is compounded with other misjudgements.  He accuses the US government of having “made no attempt to initiate negotiations to avert the threatened Russian attack flanked by troop deployments” in 2022. In fact, negotiations with Russia continued also in NATO until last minute. The last meeting of the NATO-Russia Council with Russia represented by Deputy Defence Minister Fomin and Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko took place on 12 January 2022!   In that meeting, as in earlier ones, the Russian side had outlined their maximalist revisionist programme, including the assured neutrality of Ukraine, and the withdrawal of NATO troops from Allies that did not belong to the Alliance prior to 1997, i.e. the entirety of NATO’s eastern flank from the Baltic States, via Poland, Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary to Romania and Bulgaria. This would in essence have granted Russia a sphere of influence not only over Ukraine but also NATO.  At the time, then NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg noted that “NATO Allies are ready to meet again with Russia to discuss a number of topics in greater detail and to put concrete proposals on the table.” “There are opportunities for constructive engagement which should not be missed, in the interest of security in Europe,” he added.

    Habermas’ pro-Russia bias is combined with a latent anti-Ukraine bias. According to him, Europeans “completely surrendered the initiative to the Ukrainian government by pledging unconditional support for the Ukrainian war effort without any objective or orientation of their own.” In reality, support provided to Ukraine has in essence been too limited, too late, and subject to too many caveats – driven by a mixture of lack of leadership and courage, and narrow national interests.  This in essence, while it has enabled Ukraine to uphold the defence of the country, has not provided it with what is needed to win the fight on its own terms.

    Equally concerning is how Habermas constructs a presumed divergence of fundamental interests between Ukraine, NATO nations and the EU respectively:

    “For the immediate concern of this long-term rearmament program cannot be the fate of Ukraine, which is currently particularly risky and rightly worrisome; nor is it a possible or talked up current Russian threat to Nato countries. Rather, the overall goal of this rearmament is the existential self-assertion of a European Union that can no longer count on the protection of the United States in an increasingly unpredictable geopolitical situation.”

    With that Habermas seems to construe different European categories: There is Ukraine whose fate is “particularly risky and rightly worrisome,” but European rearmaments efforts should not be seen as considering Ukraine as an “immediate concern.”  Thereby, Habermas seems unwilling to understand that the defence of Ukraine cannot be separated from European values and interests; that these very values are defended by Ukraine on its soil and with its blood, against a ruthless aggressor.  As stated by all 32 Allies at NATO’s Washington Summit: “A strong, independent, and democratic Ukraine is vital for the security and stability of the Euro-Atlantic area.  Ukraine’s fight for its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders directly contributes to Euro-Atlantic security.” Sadly, Ukraine’s partners have only been providing half-hearted support in putting this vision into reality.

    And then there are in Habermas’ thinking NATO countries facing a “possible or talked up current Russian threat”, in distinction to the “existential self-assertation” of the European Union – as if most EU members would not also be in NATO.

    Altogether, Habermas’ framework seems unable to accommodate the seismic shifts that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and Donald Trump’s instigated dissolution of the “West” have triggered.  While the response undoubtedly needs to be European, his focus on the European Union is too narrow to meet current and future challenges.

    Habermas wants the creation of a “joint EU military deterrent force”: “Can the EU be perceived as an independent military power factor at the global level as long as each of its member states retains ultimate sovereignty over decisions regarding the structure and deployment of its armed forces? It will only gain geopolitical independence if it is able to act collectively, including in the use of military force.”

    Even if this EU reform were ever achieved, which is more than doubtful, it would not provide the deterrence, defence and security Europeans need now, and in the years ahead. As a case in point, the EU itself confirms in the new White Paper on European Defence Readiness 2030 that “Member States will always retain responsibility for their own troops, from doctrine to deployment, and for the definition needs of their armed forces”.  But providing collective defence and security does not necessarily require the creation of a supranational body a la Habermas. NATO has done this successfully over the past 76 years as an intergovernmental institution.  Should NATO fail to meet the challenges of its current Trump-induced existential crisis, there can be other formats to mobilize Europe’s ”existential self-assertation”. These can consist in establishing a coalition of the willing which could also involve EU outsiders UK, Norway, Canada, and in fact also Ukraine, or by forging a new European or Western Defence Alliance which could bring together the “rump NATO” and the EU’s portion of defence and security.  

    Effective deterrence and defence needs, beyond resources and formats, in particular the will and determination of people to defend their country, their values and their interests. For that the “military mentality” much demonized by Habermas is essential – to be in extremis willing to fight for our freedom and our democracies.

    Habermas’ adherence to his life-long pacifism and anti-militarism, as honourable as they have been over past decades, seem to have made him a prisoner of his own thought structure.   The “Zeitenwende” begins in people’s minds. Unfortunately, Habermas doesn’t really seem to have realised it yet.

  • We Are All Gaullists Now. Are We?

    We Are All Gaullists Now. Are We?

    To the Grand Old Man of wartime and postwar France, Donald Trump’s treatment of America’s European allies would not have come as a surprise. Quite the contrary, he suspected the Americans all along of being perfectly capable of backstabbing their allies (in his view) like in the Suez Crisis of 1956. That is one of the reasons why he insisted on taking France out of NATO’s integrated military structure in 1966 and prioritised developing France’s independent nuclear deterrent.

    In the days of Trump and MAGA, he seems to be proven right, to the point of Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp claiming ‘We’re all Gaullists now’, or Germany’s likely future Chancellor Friedrich Merz demanding European ‘independence from the US’ in security, like an Atlanticist mugged by reality.

    No wonder that Charles de Gaulle is now back in the headlines across much of Europe, way beyond the hexagone of France itself. But before we unquestioningly jump on this bandwagon, let’s examine the entire de Gaulle, assess his present successor Emmanuel Macron and his record on European security, and spend a few thoughts on the future of our relationship with the US. And then chart a course that will hopefully be consensual among the majority of Europeans.

    De Gaulle’s mixed legacy

    While acknowledging the indispensable contribution of les Anglo-Saxons (meaning chiefly Britain and the US) to France’s freedom in the First as well as the Second World War, de Gaulle nevertheless harboured a deep, culture-based bias against them. Incidentally, that was why he went to considerable lengths to keep Britain out of the European Economic Community, the EU’s precursor, in the 1960s. Today, the UK is indispensable to any European security structure, for its size, as well as for its military, diplomatic and intelligence capabilities, especially its own nuclear deterrent. Nobody has brought post-Brexit Britain and the EU closer together than Donald Trump.

    De Gaulle was also very much opposed to all supranational aspects of European integration, advocating a ‘Europe of the fatherlands’ (very much Orbán-style in today’s terms) – and boycotting European ministerial meetings in his ‘empty chair’ policy of 1965 which threw the young community into an existential crisis. The EU wouldn’t be where it is if this purely intergovernmental approach had won the day. De Gaulle also helped to kill the European Defence Community which would have given European integration an early security component, in 1954.

    Finally, his 1959 dream of a ‘Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals’ deliberately excluded North America (including Canada) from the continent while approving a strong bond with Russia (as he insisted on calling the USSR). That’s not even equidistance anymore; in today’s terms, this would be appeasement of Putin.

    Praise to Macron where praise is due

    To make things absolutely clear: Macron was right about Europe’s strategic autonomy as a goal. Probably, the concept would have had stronger appeal if he had named it ‘responsibility’. But this is water under the bridge. As much as the Central Europeans were historically right about Russia, he had the right instincts about the probability of the US decoupling from European security in a way Atlanticists (including myself) could not imagine.

    But Macron came late to the party of clearly and decisively opposing Russian aggression under Putin. Only in his Bratislava speech of 2023 did he fully embrace Central European views of Russia, having dangerously appeased Putin – alongside Germany under Schröder and Merkel – for much too long: for almost a decade after the initial aggression of 2014. This attitude went a long way to explain Central Europeans’ and, generally, Atlanticists’ distrust of French leadership on European security.

    Moreover, even after 2023, France has not in every sense followed up its words with concrete action. Today, France’s defence spending has just reached 2 % of GDP while already being in massive debt. And French military assistance to Ukraine, at 3,5 billion Euros, remains behind countries like Sweden, Netherlands and Denmark and above all, Germany with over 12 billion.

    Most importantly, France’s partners in Europe are still worried about the prospect of a Marine Le Pen victory (or some other nationalist’s) in the 2027 presidential election. Would other Europeans then be entitled, or actually forced, to seek strategic autonomy from France? – To say that such a victory is not going to happen, or not going to have any consequences for Europe’s common defence, would be to repeat the mistakes of those who ruled out Trump in 2015, or the disastrous effects of Trump 2.0 in 2024. This is another reason why France as the sole leader on Europe’s security is unlikely, and a backstop against one of the security drivers of future Europe turning nationalist, will have to be part of the formula.

    Is Trump history’s last word on America?

    The answer is, of course, no. First of all, whatever Trump and the Republican Party are claiming, November 6, 2024, was no landslide victory. Trump got less than 50 % of the valid votes (49,8 %), his advance on Kamala Harris was a mere 1,5 percentage points – and 48,3 % voted for her. With the US economy tanking, there are good reasons to assume that the midterm elections in November 2026 will see a Democratic majority in the House, ending unrestrained Republican government. There have been too many moments since the end of the Cold War when the current administration seemed to imply a total and lasting break with the past – for example, George W. Bush’s neocons 2000-2008, and right after that the ‘Obama coalition’ of youngsters, women and Black and Latino voters that were supposed to guarantee Democrat majorities forever. At some point, US electorates will realign again, maybe rather sooner than later.

    Whether Trump and MAGA manage to turn the US into an autocracy, is very questionable. Not just are checks and balances still alive and hard to abolish, but there are powerful federal states, media, civil society and above all, citizens who will at least have an important say in the future of the United States, no matter who is in the White House.

    Most of all, ‘America First’, bullying allies and pandering to autocrats is simply opposed to the founding narrative of the United States. The ‘city upon a hill’ as which America is designed, cannot easily and above all sustainably turned into a jingoistic bully. America the Beautiful is stronger than America the Horrible. Of course, Europe must now defend its freedom against MAGA and Musk, and it should never return to the dependency of recent decades. But it should always prepare for a change of tack in Washington and leave as much as possible of transatlantic ties in place, especially on the sub-national level.

    What we owe to ourselves and our children now:

    · It is high time to put to rest the acrimony of past debates about Russia as well as the US, and step by step work on Europe’s strategic autonomy in defence and security.

    · Obviously, we need to ramp up defence spending, arms production and assisting Ukraine: on this, ‘Gaullists’ and Atlanticists were already in agreement for some time. For sophisticated weapons systems, there should be a clear ‘Buy European’ preference.

    · This will in many cases have to happen in coalitions of the willing, because of Hungarian vetoes, and outside of EU structures in order to include countries like the UK. An EU Army is therefore hard to imagine, as well as an EU nuclear deterrence. Which is why Britain and France will be in the drivers’ seat of rearming Europe and securing a possible ceasefire in Ukraine for quite some time.

    · We need to preserve of NATO as much as possible for as long as possible, because Europe’s autonomy will take time to build; if necessary, we need to stick to ‘NATO Redux’ (with the US remaining de facto passive) but including the UK, Canada and Norway. Even a ‘Ramstein Redux’ Group makes sense, in order to continue security cooperation with Japan, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan etc.

    · Don’t fall for China: China under Xi Jinping has developed into a fundamentally hostile power that, though different from Russia under Putin, nevertheless defines our democracy as an existential threat. Some degree of economic decoupling from China, especially reducing dependency on its markets and lowering the risk of technological penetration, will be necessary – for our own sake, not to please Trump.

    · Global democracy support remains a worthwhile undertaking. Our growth in hard power should not come at the cost of soft power (which is not that expensive anyway). Part of the mantle of America’s past solidarity with democrats across the globe must now be picked up by Europe.

    In other words, we need to embrace strategic autonomy while seeing that it will only emerge step by step. We will need America’s support in a transactional manner where we can get it but should never rely on it for our freedom. It will be a long and arduous road, with lots of socioeconomic distribution battles. But we need to start walking on it now.

  • Will NATO’s new existential crisis be its last?

    Will NATO’s new existential crisis be its last?

    Over the course of its 75 years’ history, NATO has weathered many storms. At least two earlier crises were existential – and in each case the US played a key role:

    During the Suez crisis in 1956, the US under President Eisenhower strongly opposed the use of force by Britain and France to regain control of the Suez Canal, which had been nationalized by Egypt. Britain and France, as the former colonial powers, saw the Suez Canal as crucial to their economic and strategic interests. They believed that the nationalization threatened their influence in the region and decided to take military action, despite U.S. disapproval. At the time, the US forced them to withdraw. More fundamentally, this rift laid bare the lack of political consultations among Allies. In response, NATO developed the famous „Report of Three Wise Men“ which reinforced NATO’s political and non-military role, strengthened political consultations, and contributed to broadening the strategic framework of the Alliance.

    2003 saw another deep rift in the Alliance, this time linked to Iraq. Many NATO nations including France, Germany, Belgium argued that there was no convincing evidence for the presumed existence of Sadam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction. At the time, this served as the main argument to justify the incursion. The US, supported by the UK and Poland nonetheless went ahead with the invasion and toppled Iraq’s dictator. While NATO as an organisation was not directly involved, divisions among Allies were so deep and bitter that a break-up of the Alliance was entirely possible. When it transpired in the following that no weapons of mass destruction could be found, this led to a long-lasting damage of US credibility in NATO.
    This time, the crisis caused by Donald Trump and his clan is again existential, and arguably more fundamental, for NATO on several fronts:

    • With his disdain for democracy, D Trump is infringing on NATO’s shared values and principles as enshrined in the Alliance’s 1949 founding treaty, the Washington Treaty. In the preamble Allies commit to “safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilisations of their people, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and human rights.”
    • His neo-imperialistic coercion targeted, inter alia, against two fellow NATO Allies, i.e. Canada and Denmark’s self-ruling territory Greenland, over whom he wants to achieve control, is in violation of both the UN Charter and the NATO Treaty.
    • By raising doubts if the US would contribute to defending other Allies in case of an armed attack, he is putting into question the bedrock of NATO, the collective defence clause of Article V, Washington Treaty.
    • Trump’s entire strategic orientation, like his cosying up with Russia’s despot Vladimir Putin, or insulting Ukraine’s democratically elected President as a “dictator”, is in blatant contradiction with consecutive NATO Summit decisions. It is symptomatic for a political U-turn away from overarching strategic policies in NATO agreed among all Allies including the US, be these the 2019 Military Strategy, the 2020 Concept for the Defence and Deterrence of the Euro-Atlantic Area (DDA) or the 2022 Strategic Concept.

    In view of all this, does NATO have a plan how to deal with the multiple onslaughts? How would NATO cope with a potential US withdrawal from the Alliance?

    Perhaps there is something well hidden in NATO Secretary General Rutte’s mind, but so far there is little visible or tangible resembling a plan or policy options. The focus seems to rely on talking to key US interlocutors and activating Rutte’s talent as a “Trump whisperer” – which was eventually also one of the main reasons why he got the job as Secretary General. Big parts of NATO seem paralysed. This concerns not only work on defining a new Russia policy (a tasker from the 2024 Summit), but also other work strands. How can the North Atlantic Council still discuss sensitive matters ranging from cyber security via support to Ukraine or steps to strengthen Allied resilience in view of Russia’s intensifying shadow war against all of them, when nations cannot exclude that their positions may well be shared with Moscow? A coherent plan worth that name, or options how to deal with the assault, are lacking.  

    A first immediate step for NATO must be to realise that remaining in the defensive vis-à-vis Trump, like an anxious little rabbit imploring the snake not to hurt it, is probably a recipe to be swallowed. Instead, willing Allies should take the initiative, as a coalition of the willing, and ask the US to clarify whether or not they still abide by a whole range of key strategic documents constituting NATO’s acquis and political agenda. These include the NATO Treaty, the 2022 Strategic Concept, the 2019 Military Strategy to name but the most foundational ones. All these were, of course, also agreed by the US. Depending on the answer received, Allies should either demand the US to honour commitments made, or suspend US membership.

    The logical public focus of NATO’s Secretary General will be to keep the Alliance together and therefore the US in NATO. However, there is no guarantee whatsoever that this is achievable. Marc Rutte would therefore be well advised to pursue in parallel other options and scenarios. This requires strategic-level cooperation with the EU and the fostering of new forms of cooperation via coalitions of the willing.
    Considering the US disregard for Europeans in NATO and the EU, the logical focus of these efforts must be Europe, with the overarching goal to become a serious geostrategic player. The days of Europe’s childhood are over. The decades of geopolitical outsourcing are over. It is high time to grow up and behave like an adult.

    Most of the following reflections and recommendations are based on the so far more likely scenario of an immediate to mid-term end of US support to Ukraine, and the substantive rebalancing of the transatlantic relationship towards a more reduced US role and more European strategic responsibility. This would require the creation of a “coalition of the willing” as an ad hoc solution, the Europeanisation of NATO in conjunction with strengthening the EU as a more capable actor in the realm of security and defence. 

    • Prepare a robust and substantial support package for Ukraine. Defeating Russia in Ukraine is the most effective and efficient investment in European security. European defence begins in Ukraine. To match Russia’s resources on the battle field, just 0.2% of the GDP of European NATO member would be needed, according to new research from the Tony Blair Institute. That is a feasible amount, especially when considering that in the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine, European NATO members would have to move to some 5% of GDP on defence.

      For delivering on a potential future peace keeping or reassurance mission, leaders from both EU and NATO need to agree on a new enabling framework – as the unanimity principle of both institutions would otherwise paralyse them.  The most productive would be a „coalition of the willing“ to take things forward. The political lead could come from a Quintet consisting of France, UK, Poland, Italy, and Germany. Preparations on this seem to advance, considering the flurry of meetings between these countries over past weeks. The operational lead could come via the UK-lead Joint Expeditionary Forces (JEF) which would have to be enlarged to also include at least also France, Poland, Germany, Italy and ideally more nations such as Canada.
    • Boost combat capable troops and work towards joint defence planning in Europe: On paper, European armies have a total of 1.9 million military personnel, with 1.33 million in the EU alone. But effectiveness is hampered by a myriad of issues. These range from lack of equipment including most strategic enablers, via lack of training and to lack of unified command. In essence, European armies are so far not set up to fight without US support. A recent analysis from Bruegel concludes that an increase in European capacities equivalent to the fighting capacity of 300 000 US troops would be needed for Europe to defend itself against Russia as the most direct and imminent threat. NATO European Allies should agree within NATO’s defence planning process to a military level of ambition for European strategic responsibility.
    • In view of these huge deficits, commit to raise defence spending to a new baseline of 3.5% of GDP – which was pretty much the norm during the decades of the Cold War in European countries. Political leaders need to be upfront with their populations explaining that peace and security are investments in our prosperity. In parallel, also work towards common funding at EU levels. The EU has mobilized a massive multi-tier support package of ca. € 3.2 trillion in total fiscal response in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. Today’s security challenges are far greater. There is no justification other than political inertia to not embrace an ambitious and robust approach now.
    • Turbo-charge European defence production which so far is too small, too fragmented, and too slow. In this context, work towards closing key gaps in artillery shell production, air and missile defence and deep-strike systems. Also consider NATO’s upcoming report on capability gaps – which is expected to call for 49 new brigades, 1500 tanks and 1000 artillery pieces – as a guide for the EU’s industrial spending priorities.
    • Reinforce the Europe’s Eastern flank as quickly as possible, by redeploying forces and prepositioning equipment. This will reinforce Europe’s deterrence and defence posture vis-a-via Russia as the biggest threat to peace and security. The continuing hurdles with military mobility, e.g. lack of adequate infrastructure like roads or railways, lack of standardized procedures akin to a (non-existing) „Military Schengen“, and the abundance of red tape imply that any large move of forces is slow and cumbersome. Getting ahead of the curve before any potential conflict erupts, is therefore a logical move.
    • Foster synergies with other likeminded partners across the globe: With Donald Trump’s neo-imperialism and unwillingness to behave like a trustworthy Ally, it is important to forge ties with those countries that share the fundamental values and interest of both NATO and EU in upholding a rules-based international. These include capable partners in the Indo-Pacific like Japan, Australia, or South Korea, but should be extended to other partners in Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

    Prepare for the unthinkable: A conventional US withdrawal from NATO and the “nuclear option”

    While to date, Donald Trump has not (yet) repeated his threat to withdraw the US from NATO, considering his unpredictability such a scenario cannot be ruled out. Europeans, be they via NATO and/or the EU need to stick together as “forces for good”, adhering to fair play and global norms, fostering democratic principles, and multilateralism in a civilised world. NATO and the EU should bring their strategic partnership to a new level of practical efficiency. A useful step would be to set up a new albeit informal “Leadership Steering Group” as an organic link, driving the strategic partnership and generating ‘synergy from the top’.

    Altogether, Europeans should pursue a three-pronged survival strategy to regain the initiative and become a serious geopolitical actor. 

    As an immediate and urgent need, largely driven by the imperative to support Ukraine, work on establishing a “coalition of the willing” must be expedited as an ad-hoc solution. This approach allows Europeans to deliver, since spoilers like Hungary or Slovakia cannot block decision making and implementation. 

    On a second track, they must reinforce the Europeanisation of NATO in conjunction with boosting the EU as a more capable actor in the realm of defence and security.
    Europeans have a vital self-interest to deliver expeditiously on more European strategic responsibility, also to keep the US engaged at least mid-term, e.g. with its forces and the nuclear umbrella in Europe. This also buys them some time to build the capabilities they need to better look after their defence and security.  

    On track three Europeans also need to envision a potential worst-case scenario of “NATO minus US”. This would require to establish a new European Defence Alliance (or Organisation), or a Western Defence Alliance, as a new body and based on a coalition of the willing. Such a new institution could merge the rump NATO with the defence and security capabilities developed under the EU umbrella. Setting up such a new institution could also be a useful move to reinforce European capability to act. If based on a coalition of the willing, it could include Canada, and it would avoid the notorious blockages from Russia’s Trojan Horses like Orban and Fico. At the same time, a new institution could include Ukraine which arguably has the most capable and combat experienced armed forces in Europe, hardened by defending the country against a major power, i.e. Russia. This would be a formidable asset. Thinking on all this must start now. The ad hoc “coalition of the willing” forged to deliver European support to Ukraine could be a useful testbed or precursor.

    The good news is that NATO survived earlier crises. Thus, there is hope that also this time it will have the drive and determination to reinvent itself – or be reborn as something new. The jury is out there whether NATO Secretary General Rutte will play any meaningful role in these endeavours. So far, it doesn’t bode too well.

    © Gerlinde Niehus, March 2025