Kategorie: Roland’s engagements

  • Diplomacy and War Zelensky-Trump-Putin phone diplomacy, NATO and Poland-Ukraine: My interview yesterday on TVP World

    Zelensky-Trump and Putin-Trump calls:

    • Zelensky can build on recent military successes against Russia (drones, deep strikes). Trump may not like Zelensky, but he respects winners.
    • Zelensky can show that he is still interested in peace negotiations, as opposed to Putin who hasn’t budged since 2022

    NATO summit in Ankara:

    • damage limitation is the Europeans’ goal but Trump has been turning up the hate against NATO recently.
    • On defence spending, Greenland, Iran, in 2025/6 Europeans have done the reasonable things and resisted the crazy ideas.
    • The problem is that every Trump tweet bashing the allies gives Putin new hope of splitting the West and thereby eventually winning against Ukraine.

    Ukrainian drone strikes:

    • They are extremely effective in turning up the heat on Putin. He is now in his worst situation since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, thanks to Ukrainian military successes, but also Western sanctions and the subsequent souring of the mood of many Russians.
    • Whether that will force him to compromise on peace with Ukraine, remains to be seen. But it’s still Ukraine’s best bet.

    Military situation in Donbas:

    • Claims and counter-claims about who controls Kostyantynivka: What we know for sure is that the city centre will still be embattled for some time while Ukraine inflicts terrible losses on Russia (like in Pokrovsk).
    • Kostyantynivka is no tipping point, even for the Donbas itself. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are firmly in Ukrainian hands, and strongly fortified.

    US intel warnings about Russian attack against Poland:

    • Putin may indeed be weighing options of a hybrid attack on a NATO member. It sounds counter-intuitive because Russia has problems already in Ukraine but it would most certainly not be a full-scale ground attack but something hybrid (missiles, drones, sabotage, maybe limited incursion under false flag).
    • The goal would not be to conquer territory, but to distract attention (and arms deliveries) from Ukraine and, above all, split the Europeans: there would be countries in favour of an armed response and others who would want to de-escalate.
    • Donald Tusk is right to amplify those US government warnings: Better safe than sorry!

    The Polish-Ukrainian spat over history:

    • This is by now a full-blown crisis between important allies, and the only profiteer is Putin!
    • Mistakes were made on both sides, but the most important lesson is: Poles and Ukrainians will hardly agree on a common vision of a painful history. They should jointly prioritise to cooperate on topics that are of strategic importance: that Ukraine wins the war and that it soon joins the EU.
    • In that sense, history should be put in its place.

  • Trump, NATO and a Possible Russian Attack

    (my interview for TVP World on 26 April, 2026)

    • White House Correspondents Dinner attack:
      • Europeans’ gut reaction is: This is America’s toxic gun culture and political polarisation.
      • But initially, there was even a conciliatory tone between Republicans and Democrats: both sides were represented at the dinner, and Trump called this an attack on the Constitution (about which he otherwise cares less).
      • But this kind of unity is not going to last. Trump’s ship is sinking, politically, and divisiveness will quickly return.
    • Trump’s and Tusk’s remarks on NATO allies:
      • Trump calling Europeans bad allies is like Voldemort claiming Harry Potter violated the Geneva Convention at the Battle of Hogwarts.
      • Critics of PM Tusk’s questioning US loyalty in NATO should finally admit that it’s Trump who has been systematically undermining Article 5 for over a year now.
      • Trump’s claim that NATO allies are unhelpful over Iran systematically overlooks the fact that NATO is a defensive alliance, not one for a war of choice without even consulting allies.
      • The one time allies were there to help the US was after it had been attacked on 9/11. And Europeans casualties there were overproportional in relation to their size.
    • US-Polish relations:
      • There still is a special relationship beyond NATO. Poland’s record on defence spending and readiness to fight is exemplary. Trump has nothing to complain about here.
      • Recent US behaviour reminds a lot of Poles of Soviet bullying. And President Nawrocki’s attempt to create a special axis to Washington, bypassing the government, is not helpful.
    • Is a Russian attack on NATO imminent?
      • PM Tusk said something that many European political leaders and military commanders have said, just maybe a little less dramatically than he.
      • An attack may indeed be closer than many in Europe think. Russia still has some reserve forces and air assets, and it already is waging a hybrid war against Western democracies ranging from cyber attacks to sabotage etc.
    • Is NATO ready?
      • Probably not tomorrow. Also depends on the kind of attack. Now, the US are indispensable for a defence.
      • In the long run, Europeans have to be able to deter Russia on their own; in the short run, they have to take what they can get from the US. This may make them actually more dependent, which is why Europeans need to navigate between short and long term.
    • EU summit in Cyprus:
      • The 90 bn loan for Ukraine passed! That’s a welcome boost for Ukraine.
      • On financing the EU’s huge expenditures for defence, energy security and soon maybe even to counter a new global recession, there is the habitual difference between the frugal North and the profligate South. But a compromise will be found!

  • Ukraine freezing, Trump raging, Europe reacting

    My latest for TVP World, on Ukraine and Trump/Greenland:

    1) There is, as there has always been, a real danger of Trump ending US support for Ukraine, even if the Europeans are paying for it. Just to blackmail Zelensky into accepting a bad peace deal, or now to coerce Europe on his latest fantasy, annexing Greenland.

    2) This is happening as Russia intensifies its airstrikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. So far, Ukrainians have shown an admirable resilience and ingenuity in repairing and improvising, but now more European deliveries of air defence systems and ammo are urgent.

    3) Macron’s claim that 3/4 of Ukrainian battlefield intelligence is provided by France, not US, is ambitious but intelligence doesn’t replace weapons.

    4) There are ways to tackle the manpower problem of the UA armed forces, by limiting length of service and multiplying pay to get more people to sign up, but also by having younger and more convincing officers and NCOs for training, as most defections happen after basic training – and finally by replacing humans by ground based combat robots, as recently happened very successfully in Donbas.

    5) Trump’s latest tariff threat is clearly crossing a Rubicon for Europeans. The mood in Brussels and other capitals is: „Enough is enough“. There will be a unified answer by the EU, and it won’t be nice. A threat of retaliatory tariffs on US products and services (incl. digital) is definitely on the cards.

    6) Norway and UK are totally on board with this (so much for Brexit). Even many of Europe’s national populists are now attacking Trump, such as Farage and the Denmark Democrats.

    7) Cooperation and coordination of the Europeans with Congress is crucial, and has already begun. There are hopeful signs that Senators and Congresspeople, at long last, man up to prevent Trump from destroying NATO and throwing Ukraine under the bus.

  • Ukraine’s Road to EU Membership

    TVP World, the Polish Public TV English language channel, has a new format: „Wider View From Brussels“. Here’s my take, of 2 days ago, on Ukraine’s road to EU membership, the geopolitical, political and economic implications, comparisons with the 2004 big bang enlargement, and the eminent question of how to overcome the fatal Hungarian vetoes – together with Rosa Balfour from Carnegie Europe, moderated by TVP World’s Marcin Zaborowski.

  • Germany’s new Ukraine doctrine: more money, harder questions

    My latest interview for TVP World, 14 Nov 2025


    – Germany under Chancellor Friedrich Merz is putting its money where its mouth is when it comes to helping Ukraine defending itself: On top of the planned 8,5 bn Euros, in 2026 Germany has pledged 3 bn additionally.
    – The EU will use the frozen Russian assets as backup for a 140 bn Euro loan to Kyiv, but:
    – Belgium is right to insist on iron-clad guarantees from its EU partners for possible lawsuits.
    – Merz combines ramping up aid fur Ukraine with some frank language on solving the Ukraine Armed Forces‘ manpower problem and fighting corruption more effectively.
    – Putin wants to hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure more massively than ever before in order to cause waves of refugees. That’s why Ukraine urgently needs more help on air defence.